Today's gold trend plummeted! What will happen to gold in the future?
In the Asian session on Tuesday, Beijing time, WTI crude oil opened lower and went higher, once rising more than 10%; cloth oil opened higher and went higher, up 10%. Safe-haven assets are obviously under pressure. Spot gold continued to fall after the short-term decline of more than $ 8 at the beginning of the session, falling 1% below the 1670 mark. At 14:00 in the afternoon, spot gold broke through $ 1,650 per ounce, and the decline expanded to 1.71% ; COMEX silver fell more than 1% in the day. The U.S. dollar rose more than 1.5% above the 104 integer mark, the largest intraday gain since February 2019; the U.S. dollar index returned above the 96 integer mark, gaining 0.62% in the day.
In addition, the three major stock index futures of the US stock market successfully rebounded after the market initially fell 1%, the Nasdaq futures rose to 3%, the Dow futures rose 2.7%, and the S & P 500 futures rose nearly 3%. In the Asian session, risk sentiment continued to improve, with global stock index futures all rising. Among them, the FTSE China A50 index futures rose to 4%, the German DAX index futures rose 4.8%; the British FTSE 100 index futures rose 1.9%; the European Stoxx 50 index futures rose 5.22%.
It is worth noting that, although there has always been a "chaos gold" statement, in the past month, the rise of gold has not been smooth. The need to raise funds has prompted some investors to sell gold for cash, and a bet on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has also increased the appeal of such interest-free assets. Ava Trade Chief Market Analyst Naeem Aslam said on Monday that this is normal in terms of volatility, especially when the market expects the Fed's March meeting to cut interest rates, and the price has broken the 1700 mark, making us believe there is a great opportunity again Break through this level.
Some analysts expect gold to continue to climb. UBS's wealth management department predicts that prices may rise to $ 1,800 in a few weeks, while Citigroup expects gold prices to surge to $ 2,000 by the end of 2021.
Investors' next focus is the European Central Bank meeting scheduled for Thursday and the Federal Reserve policy meeting scheduled for March 18.
Epidemic latest developments: the introduction of multi-national prevention measures and economic stimulus policies
in addition to the crude oil price war initiated by Saudi Arabia, but also about the development of the epidemic of this market trend. The WHO's daily epidemic report shows that on the 9th, the number of confirmed cases of neo-coronary pneumonia outside China increased by 3949 cases to 28,674; the number of deaths increased by 202 cases to 686.
As the epidemic continues to spread, countries have introduced relevant prevention and control measures and economic stimulus policies to alleviate the impact of the epidemic on the economy.
Italian Prime Minister Conte said he would extend the travel ban to the whole country. He would immediately sign the decree and all measures would take effect immediately from Tuesday morning. In addition, Conte also said that he is considering increasing the deficit as a proportion of GDP to just over 2.5%, and has made a request to Brussels.
Canadian Finance Minister Mono said that the government will announce economic support measures this week to deal with the impact of the epidemic and the plunge in oil prices. Mono believes that some areas of the economy may be hit hard, and fiscal policy is crucial when facing challenges.
In a briefing on the new crown pneumonia epidemic at the White House, US President Trump said that he would discuss with Congress possible plans to reduce salaries tax, and he was engaged in dialogue or cooperation with the hotel industry, the aviation industry and the cruise industry on the outbreak.
According to market news, Trump will hold a press conference on Tuesday on economic stimulus measures to deal with the epidemic. Trump said that "major" economic measures will be implemented, and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also said that Trump promised to use all tools for the economy.
US Vice President Pence said that as the testing continues, the number of new cases of new pneumonia infections will rise, but the public's risk of exposure to the virus is still low.
Isn't it really bad for the gold market?
Regarding gold's next move, Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodities research at BNP Paribas, said that because interest rates are currently low, now is "the best time to hold some gold."
Tchilinguirian said that although TIPS yields are at historically low levels, there is still room for further decline. Even after the Federal Reserve's emergency interest rate cut last week, BNP Paribas still expects that after the March 18 monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points. Driven by the continued loose monetary policy environment, gold will continue to attract investor interest. With no opportunity cost, gold looks good. "
Tchilinguirian and pointed out that, in the current low interest rate environment, he expects the price of gold will rise to $ 1,700-1,725 / ounce. He added that, despite the strong upward trend in gold, but the market will be very sensitive to the daily stock sell-off above At the time of the speech, the price of gold had fallen from a high point.
Tchilinguirian expects that the price of gold will not rise sharply to $ 1,800, but will rise steadily. Investors who bought gold in June must have plenty of ammunition to offset losses in the stock market. Gold has always been a good tool to guard against falling stock prices, and investors are using this hedging to support their stock positions. "
BubbaTrading.com chief market strategist Todd Horwitz wrote that the beginning of this week, gold futures prices soared after the opening, June futures up to $ 1704. Buying news fast and intense. Before the US stock market in the United States Eastern Time 9:30 Limits, bonds rose more than 10 points, and the end of the world as we know it is coming. Investors sell everything except gold and bonds. Crude oil prices fell more than $ 10 overnight.
The key to this trend is the weakness of silver and platinum, despite The prices of both metals have previously risen, but their strength has never been comparable to gold. We regard the recent highs of gold as a temporary top, and look forward to the emergence of some sellers, which may bring the price of gold back to the $ 1640 level or even Low. We can think of this as a classic pullback in the overbought market. Once the gold price finds support, there should be some consolidation before it goes up again
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